The Brexit Votes Have it: The U.K. Is Leaving The E.U.

[144man]

If you look at the difference in the age groups between those who voted "Leave" compared to "Remain", there's probably a majority to remain now as more Brexiteers will have died off, LOL.

I was being facetious when I wrote the above here.

However in a serious article entitled "Business Must Get Off The Fence And Stop Brexit" in yesterday's Evening Standard, City Correspondent Anthony Hilton wrote: "And as for thwarting the will of the people as expressed in the referendum, consider this - by 2019 some two million people from the 2016 electorate will have died and been replaced by a similar number of 18 to 20-year olds. Given no change in the voting preferences between the old and the young, that would give a majority for Remain."

[roger]

I was being facetious when I wrote the above here.

However in a serious article entitled "Business Must Get Off The Fence And Stop Brexit" in yesterday's Evening Standard, City Correspondent Anthony Hilton wrote: "And as for thwarting the will of the people as expressed in the referendum, consider this - by 2019 some two million people from the 2016 electorate will have died and been replaced by a similar number of 18 to 20-year olds. Given no change in the voting preferences between the old and the young, that would give a majority for Remain."

I just don't buy this often quoted argument 144Man .. in the 1975 referendum there was exactly the same pattern, in that the youngest were [[generally) in favour of being in The Common Market and the oldest were [[generally) not in favour ... with the tipping point where "leave" and "remain" were 50-50 being at around age 65. In last year's referendum the tipping point was at around age 40 .. if that trend were to continue by 2019 the tipping point would be down in the upper 30s and there might be a larger majority for "leave" than in 2016.

Certainly, many of those who were in the 18-24 age group in 1975 [[and who would therefore be in their early '60s in 2016) must have changed their minds between the two referendums.

On a more serious note, what is curious about the referendum of 1975, compared with that of 2016 is the way in which the two main parties switched positions on the issue .. in 1975 Labour was split right down the middle [[the big, influential Trade Unions were generally for "out) and The Conservatives were overwhelmingly in favour of being "in" [[with a couple of dozen maverick MPs campaigning for "out") .. in 2016 it was The Conservatives who were split down the middle and Labour who were overwhelmingly in favour of being "in" [[with a handful of maverick MPs campaigning for "out") and most trade unions were for "remain".

I wonder how future historians will view this.

Roger