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I was intrigued by the fact that the for the first time the NDP have replaced the Liberals as the official opposition.
I remember in one election the Conservatives were reduced to only two seats yet they were able to recover from this and get back into Government.
Does any Canadian member think the election result is a permanent change, or just a blip? Will the NDP one day form a government? Can the Liberals recover? Are the Nationalists in Quebec finished?
I believe the election results spell a permanent change for individuals such as Gil Doucette and Michael Ignatieff [[sp?) and for political parties such as the Bloc de Quebecois. For the Liberals it is a wake up call that they must seriously regroup.
I do see the NDP becoming the majority with Jack Layton at the helm and I see it coming fairly soon. I could not believe that Steven Harper was able to get a majority government this past election. I am not wholeheartedly against him and the Conservatives, but they were held in contempt during the last Parliament and it should have been reflected in the polls!
In the UK, the Labour Party replaced the Liberals as the official main opposition party in 1922 following a peculiar set of circumstances following the First World War. Labour claimed that this was the inevitable march of history, but the Liberals here always held out Canada, particularly under Pierre Trudeau, as an example that there was nothing inevitable about it. That has all changed now.
It will be intriguing what happens in the next General Election. When the Conservatives do lose support, whether it goes to the NDP or to the Liberals will be significant.
The Conservatives are going to loose support especially after Harper pulled a fast one by "appointing" defeated candidates from the public election to the Senate! Much of that support will go to the NDP mainly because the general population view the party as the one clear choice that they have for positive change in the Canadian Government. The Liberals will regain some ground, but my money is on the NDP and Jack Layton to finally gain the majority.
Thanks for the nudge to look at this 144.
I doubt that the Liberals are gone ~ they have been called Canada's Natural Governing Party. But they have had a couple of very uncharismatic, academic leaders. Their general persona over the last 60 years has been to steal ideas from the NDP and put them into practice and occasionally steal a Conservative idea as well.
If the Conservatives start cutting lots of programs and moving into social policy ~ they will get wiped out again. In Canada, gay marriage has been legal for sometime; abortion is legal too. If they want to open those issues, they will get in trouble. But many young people say they won't go near them and that is what Harper has said; we will see. I did see some church group has already asked the Conservatives to look at the "right's agenda" and the church agenda. On the other hand, I saw Canada on a list of 7 countries where religion was going to be declared extinct.
Canada leans quite a bit to the left of the USA. The NDP moved into opposition because Jack Layton is very charismatic and because Quebec abandoned the Liberals and Conservatives. We have had 5 years of minority Conservative government which means they weren't able to do much ~ if they had done what they wanted with a majority government, they wouldn't have got elected this time.
My guesses are the Liberals will be back big time; the Conservatives will lose next time; the NDP will suffer from it probably. But perhaps they are here to stay; it will depend on how they all do over the next 4 years.
I thought the result this time was disappointing with respect to the majority; it was great with respect to the NDP.
The Senate appointments were stupid; but we are 4 years from an election; it will be forgotten; maybe the Conservatives and NDP will reform the Senate; they've always said they want to. It is unelected in Canada; you get appointed to the Senate by the Government in power.
I suppose in the next election a lot will depend on the local strength of the parties in the individual provinces. The NDP might increase its seats in the rest of the country at the expense of the Conservatives, but it is hard to see how it would be able to gain power if it lost the seats it won from the Bloc de Quebecois back to them, or even to the Liberals.
The outcome might be a bit of a lottery. The party with the biggest vote nationally might not end up with the greatest number of seats in Parliament.
It would be a shame if the will of the people were to be thwarted by statistical anomalies caused by the deficiencies of the "first past the post" system.
I believe the Bloc de Quebecois is done! I cannot see the NDP losing seats back to them. The NDP has the momentum at this point in time. Some would have to go drastically wrong for them to even lose seats to the Liberals......Quote:
Originally Posted by 144man
I hope the Bloc is done. With some luck, that will come to pass.
The NDP elected a lot of "kids", parachute candidates that did not even campaign in the election because it was assumed they had no chance. And then they won nearly all the seats in Quebec. One of the winners was a 19 year old University student who had to give up his $9.65 an hour job at a golf course to sit in Parliament. Another NDP winner was a waitress who was in Las Vegas most of the campaign and never set foot in the riding she won! So, some of these people have lots to learn. But they also might be a breath of fresh air.
Much depends on how much the Conservatives screw up over the next year. If they are wise, they might do OK. If they go the "Republican" way, I hope they get wiped out next time.
I was more than a bit surprised by the election from some Ridings of some VERY young new MP's. The whole election process is so different than in the U.S. where you have to have hundreds of thousands and in some cases millions of dollars to launch a campaign.
The Conservatives will undoubtedly screw up. They have in the most recent past which led to this last election cycle. Harper may be competent, but he is far from forthcoming and transparent in his actions within the government. I may wrong and totally off base here when I say that he only "explains things" when he gets caught or back is against the wall!
Harper is a master deceiver. My biggest recent fear about him is that he may have learned from having a minority government for 5 years and he may have learned to actually do a decent job. Three months from now we'll know. I still expect they'll buy a bunch of fighter jets we dont need and build a bunch of prisons even though the crime rate is falling. And they'll do away with the Gun Registry which all the police force says does a good job in reducing violent crime.
It will be interesting to see how some of these totally "green" New Democrats from Quebec do; they might actually be honest and be a complete breath of fresh air.
Not to mention spending millions on "gazebos" and sprucing up of parks hundreds of miles away from G-8 held in Toronto with the rationale that they wanted everything to looks spiffy for visiting dignitaries. Dignitaries that attended the the G-8 in TORONTO and most likely stayed in Toronto until the conclusion of the summit.
Oh, can you say Bev Moda? Geez!
Are most ridings safe seats? Do campaigners target marginal/ swing seats or is the effort made over the whole country?
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Originally Posted by 144man
I would say that it depends on the area/Province whether riding seats are safe or not. Clearly this time out, many of the ridings in Quebec were not so secure and I have to believe that standard campaign strategy of any party is to go after marginal or swing seats. Every now and then you have a situation where a riding seat such as the one in South Central Toronto I believe was viewed as locked, secure only to find out after the election that it was lost to a new party.
Discounting Bloc Quebecois, does the tendency towards provincial parties [[The Progressive Conservatives of Manitoba, for example) tend to gum up the political works?
[[a couple more games like the last two, and Roberto Luongo can form his own party in S.W. British Columbia)
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Originally Posted by Doug-Morgan
I heard that! Go Canucks! LOL!
Attachment 3025
Not after tonight! [[although most were not his fault).Quote:
Originally Posted by Doug-Morgan
Additional parties certainly do make things more unpredictable ...and interesting. In the last UK General Election, the Green Party won its first-ever parliamentary seat in Brighton Pavilion with a mere 31% of the vote there.
They won their first seat in Ottawa too this go round.Quote:
Originally Posted by 144man
Attachment 3036
Hooray! There is some hope for The World!Quote:
Originally Posted by 144man
Quote:
Originally Posted by robb_k
Yes there is! There is only upward and onward for the Green Party among others.
Opinion polls for the October 2015 General Election show the Conservatives without an overall majority but remaining the largest party, the Liberals reclaiming their position of official opposition at the expense of the NDP, and the Bloc Quebecois not making up any lost ground.
Do you think the opinion polls will be proved right?
Wow, can you believe all the changes that have occurred in the past 4 years since you originally started this thread?Quote:
Originally Posted by 144man
Despite Canada being a member of the British Commonwealth, we get practically.no media coverage of internal Canadian politics in between elections. I only found out there was an election this month, because I thought it was a long time since we last posted here.
I keep up via watching the CBC and CTV, Global National when I can.Quote:
Originally Posted by 144man
Two words...........................
Justin Trudeau!
http://www.aol.com/article/2015/10/2...d%3D1995770472
Yeah, baby!Quote:
Originally Posted by marv2
I don't know anything about Canadian politics, but this is great news. I was reading some stuff last night, and even some conservatives were talking about how they voted for Trudeau just to get rid of Harper because he was bad news and taking the country in the wrong direction.
Now, if the U.S. can just get our country to keep a Democrat in office, and give Democrats control of the House and Senate again.
I knew enough about his stance on things from listening to a few of his speeches and his campaign commercials I saw while in Toledo. I do hope he brings back the good ole days. If he is able to do that, then it is PARTY TIME in the Great White North! LOL!Quote:
Originally Posted by soulster
I had so much fun up there back in the day before needing passports and being interviewed for darn near 15-20 mins at the customs crossings!
Attachment 10417
'Excellent! The people had enough regressive measures, giving money from the middle class to the rich. Virtually 40 % of the vote to the Liberals. Good things ahead.
Now, if similar victories for The Democrats could happen in USA, AND they could actually get enough backing in the legislature to actually implement positive measures, things could be a lot better. Alas, I doubt that the latter scenario is possible.
But, at least Canada has a good chance to get its situation bettered, over the next several years.
Quote:
Originally Posted by robb_k
I believe some good things are heading Canada's way and soon.
After the NDP breakthrough in the last election, we all seemed to think that they would form the next government when the Conservatives lost power. As they were the main opposition party, why did this not happen? It just goes to show that nothing is inevitable in politics.
Quote:
Originally Posted by 144man
Why? Jack Layton is gone.
So are you saying that the election was won largely on Justin Trudeau's charisma?
Most definitely! He also came across as honest and straight forward. When they tried to corner him about drug usage, smoking etc. He came right out and admitted that he had .......in the past. Unlike Bill Clinton who claimed to have tried smoking weed, but never inhaled it..... Yeah right!Quote:
Originally Posted by 144man
Jack Layton [[God rest his soul) was a good man, a down to Earth people person that truly cared for the citizens of Canada and it came across abundantly whenever he was interviewed or gave a televised speech!
Attachment 10430
I think that another huge factor was that a LOT of middle-class centrists didn't like what happened to the economy as a result of the regressive tax laws enacted by The Conservatives, resulting in billionaires and multi-millionaires paying much lower percentages than middle-class workers and entrepeneurs.
A lot of us on this side of the border feel the same way!Quote:
Originally Posted by robb_k
That boy bears a suspicious resembelence to Mick Jagger...
Stephen Harper was all about "negative". Justin Trudeau was all about "happy" and "positive".
Harper is racist and tried to use the "nicab" issue to gain support in Quebec. Again another negative way.
Last weekend, he was reduced to appearing with the cocaine addict, Rob Ford, in Toronto ~ and you knew the Conservatives were in trouble.
I understand Trudeau told Obama today that Canada is "out" of the bombing mission in Syria and Iraq.
He is hugely welcome news in Canada.
Well, technically, they will phase out of the bombing, but will find other means of which to combat ISIS.Quote:
Originally Posted by jobeterob
Don't go there, please don't go there...............................hehehehehehehe he!Quote:
Originally Posted by StuBass1