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The UK's General Election is now upon us! After weeks of campaigning on issues like Brexit, the NHS, education and security, Election Day has finally come.
Will Theresa May's message of strong and stable government win people over? Will a wave of support from the left push Jeremy Corbyn onto victory? Will the Liberal Democrats see the greatest electoral recovery in living memory? What about the Greens and UKIP? And what about Wales and Scotland?
Who do you think will win? And by how much?
Hmmm .... I shall have to give this some thought, give me 24 hours and I'll let you know. :)Quote:
Originally Posted by TomatoTom123
Off to vote shortly.
Roger
Haaaa... nice one Roger :pQuote:
Originally Posted by roger
GET THE TORIES OUT NOW,Can't stand her she is worse than Thatcher[never thought anyone could be].Never seen so many homeless people begging on streets[god bless them],her and her cronies need booting out ASAP,hate tory party.Quote:
Originally Posted by TomatoTom123
Ahh, honest man, I am inclined to agree with you there. However, all the polls predict a Tory victory and I think that's probably what will happen, sadly.Quote:
Originally Posted by honest man
God Save us ,she has cut security=police force by 20,000 look what has happened to UK in few months terrorists murdering on our streets,it will get worse and now she's taking food from children's mouths and also our childrens inheritance etc,i can't stand her and may she rot in hell with Thatcher and the rest of them,sorry,i am so angry with Tory values,cheers Tom.
I'm just back from having voted. There seemed to be a few more people in the polling station than in previous elections so maybe there will be a higher turnout this time. Alternatively it could have been caused by the rapidly rising population around where I live ... my constituency now has the biggest electorate in London, when I moved here it was of average size. Certainly the central part of Ilford is rapidly becoming a place inhabited by the many and not the few [[let's hope that all those newly built dwellings prove to be strong and stable)!! :)
In my particular neck of the woods you could be forgiven for thinking that there was no election campaign at all over the past few weeks, due to the almost total lack of posters in windows/billboards etc. etc. etc. the absence of any canvassers, and the low volume of electoral literature dropping through my letter box ... the Labour Candidate's literature only arrived yesterday and I've yet to receive anything from The LibDems, The Greens or UKIP, all of whom are standing here. Something does seem a bit wrong as each candidate's election literature should be delivered to each elector as the cost is paid for by the deposit the candidates have to pay to stand. Maybe someone at the post-office doesn't like LibDems, Greens or Kippers.
As to the eventual election result, all we really have to go on are the famed opinion polls. I follow a site called "Electoral Calculus" who analyse the various opinion polls to try to determine the final result, they go into mind boggling detail ...
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
As of now Electoral Calculus are predicting a Conservative majority of 72 and an almost total collapse in the number of LibDem MPs. Of course opinion pollsters seldom get it "right" due to local/regional issues crating some "rogue" results, pollsters misjudging turnout etc. etc. etc. As I recall, in the 2015 election Electoral Calculus had David Cameron's Conservatives about 30 short of a majority and they underestimated the collapse of Labour in Scotland and the annihilation of the LibDems in South West England.
As they say ... anything can happen over the next 20 hours.
Roger
Yes indeed Roger. I kinda hope 'anything' does happen... in the sense that the Tories don't win :rolleyes:
It's interesting that you haven't recieved the leaflets from all those parties. I live in a London constituency too [[Bromley) and it's safe to say I haven't seen much campaigning but we did receive the leaflets from all the parties standing: the Conservatives, Lib Dems, Greens, UKIP, although like you the Labour leaflet only came in on Tuesday!! The Lib Dem candidate actually lives next door [[well, three doors down) so we really should get one from him!!!
Interesting website, too, Roger, thanks for the link. I actually thought the Lib Dems would make something of a recovery in the election... I mean, surely they can't lose any more seats... they've only got 8... lol
I live in Emily Thornberry territory so the result is a foregone conclusion here. She has made herself look somewhat foolish of late.
In Islington North, Corbyn is facing opposition from a fellow Labour candidate who believes that most Labour voters have no confidence in Corbyn as leader. It should be interesting to see how that goes.
And next door, we have Diane Abbott. She's been around for far too long.
Spent a lot of time in Ilford when I was young eg Valentines Park, I was taught how to swim, danced at Ilford Palais, went to all the record shops. I only go there these days when I go to the City Of London cemetery. It's changed substantially in the last 50 years.Quote:
Originally Posted by roger
Hey xtown, I didn't know about that challenge to Corbyn. Interesting.Quote:
Originally Posted by theboyfromxtown
I do believe Diane Abbott has actually had to step down as Shadow Home Secretary due to illness. To be honest she hasn't looked well for ages. Do you know if she is still standing as a candidate?
She is still standing......for Hackney North and Stoke Newington.Quote:
Originally Posted by TomatoTom123
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/c...cies/E14000720
http://www.islingtongazette.co.uk/ne...rbyn-1-5014369
The Labour candidate standing against the Labour leader!
Should be interesting.
Oh... interesting. Thanks xtownQuote:
Originally Posted by theboyfromxtown
Ah, I see... the guy is called Michael Stoker, and he's a Labour donor. He's standing in protest to Corbyn’s leadership, but as an independent [[not Labour) candidate. Interesting...!Quote:
Originally Posted by theboyfromxtown
Oooohhhh..... interesting...!! The Exit Poll has the Tories losing 17 seats and with it their majority!!!! Labour are supposed to be up by 34, the SNP down by 22 and the Lib Dems up by 6 [[almost doubling their seats... lol) which is very interesting indeed.
He couldn't stand as an official Labour candidate.....especially against the leaderQuote:
Originally Posted by TomatoTom123
Well...... it's all going on! 50 seats in and the Tories aren't making the gains they were expecting, Labour are holding on [[and even taking a few seats), and both UKIP and the Lib Dems have effectively collapsed... wow
Ah, yes, of course. Now that would be embarrassing... and probably against electoral rules... lolQuote:
Originally Posted by theboyfromxtown
He got 208 votes!Quote:
Originally Posted by TomatoTom123
Well... that backfired massively, didn't it, Theresa?!
It most certainly did, one more result to come and she has lost her overall majority [[her party gained many more votes than in 2015 but the increase in the Labour vote was even more spectacular). Seems that students turned out in their masses to vote for Labour, many of those who deserted the Kippers turned to Labour as well, and in heavily "remain" areas in England and Wales the Conservative vote fell due to the "Brexit Effect".Quote:
Originally Posted by TomatoTom123
And on the subject of the "Brexit Effect" .... My favourite moment of the night was at about 10:30PM when the automatically generated sub-titles on Sky News stated that many people were deserting The Conservatives due to their "approach to Brad Pitt"!! :)
Roger
As a postal voter, I voted over a week ago. I usually vote Liberal Democrat, but after much soul-searching, I voted for the sitting Labour candidate, Meg Hillier, for personal rather than party reasons, because she is an excellent constituency MP. The fact that she is strongly anti-Brexit and against the hated bedroom tax did no harm to her cause. She was rewarded by a massive increase in her majority from 24k to 38k.
I have always thought that the type of Brexit we get should be determined by the size of the majority to leave in the EU Referendum. If say 70% had voted to leave, then I would have had no objection to a "hard" Brexit. The fact that there was only a 3.8% majority to leave means that the country voted for a "soft" Brexit. As Theresa May called the snap election in order to bolster her negotiating position and has now lost her overall majority, the obvious conclusion is that a "soft" Brexit is still what the country wants.
What is a "soft" Brexit?
A soft Brexit would involve withdrawal from the EU while remaining in the EU single market and the EU customs union.
The irony here is that the Tories were for weeks promising that if we didn't vote Conservative there would be a 'coalition of chaos' governing the country... which is, of course, exactly what we have... it's just that the coalition is between the Tories and the DUP... a populist, homophobic, misogynistic, climate change-denying, terrorist-sympathising, far-right religious fundamentalist party...
Even more ironic is that the leader of the Scottish Conservatives, Ruth Davidson -- who helped the Tories not completely fall apart in this election by winning quite a few seats in Scotland -- is a lesbian, and currently in a same-sex relationship... meanwhile the party the Tories are about to enter coalition with opposes same-sex marriage and formerly campaigned against the legalisation of homosexual acts in Northern Ireland... which is just appalling IMO
For those who are unaware I would like to point out that The DUP is a Northern Irish party who gain most of their support from the Protestant/Unionist population there. They were formed by The Reverend Ian Paisley over 30 years ago as a breakaway from the Ulster Unionist Party, who he thought were a bit too "soft". Over the years they have gradually eroded away the vote of the "Official" Unionist Party. The big British parties [[Labour, Conservative, LibDems) don't campaign in Northern Ireland, though Labour do have a loose alliance with the SDLP [[Social Democratic & Labour Party). The SDLP were wiped out in this week's election.
Back in the 1950s/1960s the Conservatives had a formal alliance with the Ulster Unionist Party, but this fell apart in the early 1970s when The Ulster Unionists were fervently against us joining the Common Market [[the early version of The EU) and the Conservatives were overwhelmingly in favour of us joining!! Now how ironic is that??
Here are the Northern Irish election results .....
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2...rthern_ireland
The DUP were the only UK party, apart from UKIP, to actively campaign for us to leave the EU and as far as I'm aware they are in favour of what some think of as being a "soft" Brexit as they want to keep the common travel area with The Republic of Ireland that has existed since Irish independence in the 1920s [[i.e. they don't want passport controls to pop up along the border) and they want some kind of customs union to be retained with The Irish Republic.
On the subject of what is now being termed a "soft" Brexit .. I can't really see much difference between that and the kind of deal that David Cameron thought he could achieve if we stayed in, or what he was trying to negotiate with The EU early last year.
Roger
Thank you for that explanation Roger! I was too lazy to go into that much detail... lol
If you have seen the 2004 film Anchorman, and you follow British politics, this is hilarious...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FDGPEDMOhko&app=desktop
... and if you haven't, and don't, it probably won't make any sense! :)
Still no formal agreement with the DUP announced. Sinn Fein should seriously consider whether it would be in their best interest to scupper this by taking their seats in the Commons. Another election is likely later this year.
To be continued...
Ok, the video was removed so here's an alternative link: http://mashable.com/2017/06/08/ancho.../#dEoA0wkxhOqRQuote:
Originally Posted by TomatoTom123
No video there, either.Quote:
Originally Posted by TomatoTom123
Oh, sorry, soulster, it works alright for me? :)Quote:
Originally Posted by soulster
Probably because you're in the U.K.. YouTube blocks a lot of stuff from the U.S..Quote:
Originally Posted by TomatoTom123